En undersøgelse offentliggjort i International Journal of Heat and Technology bekræfter, at "Pausen" i den globale opvarmning er reel

Posted in Klima on Oct 11, 2017

En undersøgelse fra Scafetta et al., offentliggjort i International Journal of Heat and Technology bekræfter, at "Pausen" i den globale opvarmning er reel - og at klimaændringer er et meget mere sandsynligt resultatet af naturlige konjunktursvingninger end menneskeskabte CO2-emissioner. Ligeledes kan man konkludere, at de brugte klimamodeller tager fejl, hvor perioden fra 2000 til 2016 kun viser en meget lille opvarning, som slet ikke er forudsagt at de brugte klimamodeller.

Abstract

The period from 2000 to 2016 shows a modest warming trend that the advocates of the anthropogenic global warming theory have labeled as the “pause” or “hiatus.” These labels were chosen to indicate that the observed temperature standstill period results from an unforced internal fluctuation of the climate (e.g. by heat uptake of the deep ocean) that the computer climate models are claimed to occasionally reproduce without contradicting the anthropogenic global warming theory (AGWT) paradigm. In part 1 of this work, it was shown that the statistical analysis rejects such labels with a 95% confidence because the standstill period has lasted more than the 15 year period limit provided by the AGWT advocates themselves. Anyhow, the strong warming peak observed in 2015-2016, the “hottest year on record,” gave the impression that the temperature standstill stopped in 2014. Herein, the authors show that such a temperature peak is unrelated to anthropogenic forcing: it simply emerged from the natural fast fluctuations of the climate associated to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. By removing the ENSO signature, the authors show that the temperature trend from 2000 to 2016 clearly diverges from the general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Thus, the GCMs models used to support the AGWT are very likely flawed. By contrast, the semi-empirical climate models proposed in 2011 and 2013 by Scafetta, which are based on a specific set of natural climatic oscillations believed to be astronomically induced plus a significantly reduced anthropogenic contribution, agree far better with the latest observations.

En anden undersøgelse af Hodgkins et al, offentliggjort i Journal of Hydrology, vedrører oversvømmelser i Nordamerika og Europa.

Undersøgelse påviser, at der i modsætning til hvad der ofte påståes af klima alarmister, ikke har været nogen stigning i oversvømmelser, som følge af "global opvarmning" eller "klimaændringer".

Desuden påviser undersøgelsen, at der ikke er nogen forbindelse mellem oversvømmelser og "global opvarmning."

Abstract

Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25–100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchments affected to varying degrees by alterations such as reservoirs and urbanisation. In the current study, trends in major-flood occurrence from 1961 to 2010 and from 1931 to 2010 were assessed using a very large dataset (>1200 gauges) of diverse catchments from North America and Europe; only minimally altered catchments were used, to focus on climate-driven changes rather than changes due to catchment alterations. Trend testing of major floods was based on counting the number of exceedances of a given flood threshold within a group of gauges. Evidence for significant trends varied between groups of gauges that were defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold and period of record, indicating that generalizations about flood trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. Overall, the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone. Changes over time in the occurrence of major floods were dominated by multidecadal variability rather than by long-term trends. There were more than three times as many significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation than significant long-term trends.

En par vigtige pointer omkring udviklingen er, at der slet ikke er nogen consensus blandt klimaforskere om katastrofale menneskeskabte klimaforandringer. En opsummering over alle de videnskabelige raporter der hvert år publiceres viser at der er masser af respekterede og ærlige videnskabsfolk, som slet ikke deler synspunktet om menneskeskabte klimaforandringer. Se f.eks. artiklen om at 58 videnskabelige raporter fra 2017 viser at global opvarning er en myte.

Når videnskabelige undersøgelser går imod tilhængerne af klimaforandring, så kommer der altid en "ekspert" reaktion fra tilhængerne af denne ide. Der er dog som sædvanlig tale om grupper af forskere, som allerede enige om menneskeskabte klimaforandringer, og som reviewer og godkender hinandens raporter. Samt at disse forskere hensynsløst udelukker synspunkter, som går imod deres opfattelse.

Disse forskere i lang tid har været gode til at fremfører deres synspunkter, men de har indtil videre taget rigtigt meget fejl, og når det påvises, så lader de deres korrektioner slippe ud drypvis for at begrænse "skaderne" og beskytte deres interesser. Noget som alt sammen foregår på deres præmisser og vilkår.